When I first heard the expression “flooding the zone,” I thought it sounded somewhat conspiratorial. And it seems to be. It refers to just another Big Lie from the folks who are the experts on fabrications.
Views of the elections’ likely outcomes are being manipulated by a slew of deliberately biased polls weighted more heavily toward Republican voters. They have been thrown into the mix to distort the findings reported by more reputable independent and Democratic pollsters.
The purpose: make the concept of a Red Wave seem inevitable. It is not. It is not even likely at this point. Unfortunately, the mainstream media has picked up the Republicans’ ruse and magnified it as only they can.
The Republicans’ immediate goal is to depress Democrats’ enthusiasm and boost Republicans’ spirits. They may have succeeded somewhat, but we still have three days to go.
An example, provided by Simon Rosenberg, a decades-long Democratic strategist whom I follow on Twitter (@SimonWDC):
“In Georgia, the last five “A” rated independent polls have Warnock up an average of 3.2 points.”
But, Rosenberg points out, Republicans have released fifteen different polls in October—from ten supposedly different pollsters—that give Walker a 4.4 point advantage.
He sees the same phenomenon occurring in other states: the questionable Republican polls are aggregated with the independent and Democratic-originated polls and skew the reported findings.
In Pennsylvania alone, where Mehmet Oz suddenly took the Senate lead, the Republicans dropped eight polls heavily weighted toward Republican voters in just the past few days.
I have heard other commentators discuss what comes after Election Day. We have seen this scenario before—but now we have Big Liars running for election in more than half the Republican contests to exacerbate previous deliberate wrongdoing.
The Democrats appear to be substantially ahead in the voting to date. Rosenberg states that Democrats lead Republicans 50% to 40%. But the elections will be close.
The same day turnout, likely heavily Republican, is reported first. The Republicans will declare victory. When the Democratic absentee and early in-person votes are reported—if the totals move the Democratic candidates ahead—the Republicans will cry “Stop the Steal; all the polls showed us ahead!” They are already litigating in all sorts of ways over drop boxes, mail-in ballots, and the like.
Nevertheless, Simon Rosenberg—an optimist like me (though he’s more data-driven, and I don’t think he’s as much of a worrier) writes:
“Let’s get working…and close strong. We can do this.”
NOTE: For reasons I don’t understand, heavy early voting is not taking place in New York and California. If you have friends and/or family there, please make sure they’ve voted. And wherever you are, please encourage any non-MAGA voters you know to cast their ballots!
We can do this!
Annie
annieasksyou... 
The only poll that matters is the one based on our actual votes. I’ll be waiting for that.
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Absolutely; I just wish we could persuade the mainstream media that their customary horse-race coverage is not cool at this critical time.
Thanks for your comment!
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Early voting most certainly is taking place in New York State.
https://www.vote.org/state/new-york/
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I know, whungerford (and may I call you William?). I was referring to Dem reports of lower-than-hoped for turnout. NYC had been especially light. I hope that turns around.
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Yes, William it is. I am embarrassed. I overlooked the word heavy. Since then, I have seen conflicting reports on early voting in New York. I voted last Monday at 2:00. Surprisingly, there were a dozen waiting ahead of me. But when I was a poll worker Tuesday evening, no one had to wait to vote.
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Good for you being a poll worker! Hope you’ll blog about it.
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We should probably learn to ignore mainstream media prognostications as well, since they are mostly falling into line with the “red wave” narrative without making any mention of the issue of polling averages being distorted. Whether they believe that that issue is seriously skewing the average or not, they should at least address it.
As to early voting, I really think they should stop announcing moment-by-moment totals while the counting is going on, since it can create misleading impressions, and is really irrelevant to the actual result. Just announce the result of the count after it’s finished. All that matters is how many votes each candidate got, not the order in which the votes were counted.
This post has some detail on Republican-leaning vs independent polls, and on early voting.
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The closer the race the more ad money must be spent especially at the end. No truth can get in the way of that. It might be satire…”Money is indeed the most important thing in the world; and all sound and successful personal and national morality should have this fact for its basis.” — George Bernard Shaw
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Right, Richard! One of the things Simon Rosenberg has pointed out is that Mitch McConnell is still spending money in NC and OH—not a good sign for the Republicans. How lovely would that be: Two Democratic pickups there!
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Yes, Infidel; I was suggesting that we ignore media prognostications, which are largely based on the biased polls “flooding the zone.”
While I agree we’d be better off if we waited for final results, I think that’s highly unlikely in the foreseeable future. The despicable former President so sullied everything with his lies about mail-in voting that he’s changed Republicans’ voting patterns and created the misperception about vote counting. In addition, early vote data are vital for campaigns bc once they know the stalwarts have voted, they can spend their resources on reaching less reliable voters—the GOTV effort that’s going on now. So there’s big money in the mechanisms to gather the important info—and on the part of the Democrats, a real need to make it public to keep enthusiasm up.
The Daily Kos piece has lots of the info that’s been keeping me hopeful. Thank you for including it; I encourage everyone reading this exchange to peruse it!
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In other words, as they used to say in The X-Files, “trust no one”. Just get out and vote.
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Ignore the polls and vote—and get everyone you know to do the same—right!
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Opinion Polls; the only one which counts is the ballot box; despite what the Republicans had hysterics over in 2020.
Vote for your nation and future generations
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Indeed, Roger. Thank you!
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Bless you all. You true patriots.🙏
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Your support is most helpful, Roger. Sorry so haven’t visited your new posts yet—but I’ll get there!
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No problems there Annie, you have far more pressing work to do.
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Annie Asks You…..
The truth is and has been, in off year elections/the mid terms, the voting population shows up only about 50% of the time.
Annie you are correct in your conversation that suppressing the vote with lies and or fear is the way elections are controlled to another’s favor.
If there is fear in the headlines it stirs the fear in the streets. Though the fear is real it should activate not freeze voters like deer staring into a high beam.
A very good and close friend said that they couldn’t see voting for a candidate but wouldn’t for the opposition. I’ve heard this claim before in many previous election cycles. We discussed the issue and some cause of his real concerns and in the end I pointed out that by not voting you have voted for the greater of the 2 evils.
I have held my nose to elect those I did not like against those I could never trust to lead as I think our country needs to re-invest in its strengths and not crumble to its most malignant thoughts.
Democracy is enjoyed everyday by the people of this country. We have struggled to have it and to keep it alive. It is made secure by our commitment to fending off all attackers. It needs to be celebrated at the polls. It’s the way we make it work. It is our civic duty to defend it at the ballot box and not watch it dissolve from within.
Politics has always been a dirty game and well championed by both parties. Much of the time more by 1 than the other and especially in local campaigns.
It comes down to you can scare some of the voters all the time. Scare all of them sometime. But you just need to scare enough of them at voting time.
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