Though the only polls that count are those on Election Day, the media are blaring poll results that show increasing support for the Republicans based on the economy.
Concerns about the loss of reproductive and potentially other freedoms–and about democracy itself–appear to be receding, engulfed by voters’ erroneous beliefs that the Republicans are better stewards of the economy.
If we didn’t need more evidence about the dangerous winds that are drifting about, this past weekend the increasingly unhinged former guy fanned the flames by expanding his antisemitic rhetoric.
On his so-called Truth Social forum, he posted that American Jews have to “get their act together” in support of Israel (read: Support-Trump-the-friend-of-Israel-like-no-other) “before it’s too late.”
This message has since been broadly condemned as a threat that plays on the alleged dual loyalties of American Jews at a time when antisemitic incidents have dramatically increased.
Political commentator Mehdi Hasan linked Trump’s attack to a slew of others by the likes of Republican members of Congress Marjorie Taylor Greene and Paul Gosar, as well as Doug Mastriano, a far-right character who’s challenging Josh Shapiro for Governor of Pennsylvania in a campaign that has raised fear among Jewish voters.
Hasan said on his MSNBC program:
“Now is not the time to remain silent or to give the GOP a pass…These are not isolated or unconnected acts of antisemitic hate…It’s all part of the same thing. The rising & dangerous fascism on the American right.
“…people can argue over the exact definition of fascism. But the one thing that fascist movements across the west have always had in common is this: They go after Jewish minorities in their midst.”
My search for any condemnation of these attacks–from Republicans anywhere–yielded zilch.
Last week on Twitter:
Claire McCaskill, former Missouri Senator and now an MSNBC commentator, said after last week’s awfulness:
“If we have presidential turnout in America, we’ll be fine. If we have midterm turnout, we’re in trouble.”
We must defy the polls by working to persuade everyone we know that this year, our personal financial struggles simply have to take a back seat to our democracy’s urgent needs.
I had a Twitter exchange with a guy named Ted. My response appears above his initial comment.
As Dan Rather wrote in today’s issue of his publication Steady titled “Three Weeks: The midterms loom”:
“What we know right now is that the future of American democracy is on the ballot. Our core principles, our institutions, and our traditions are all at stake. Make no mistake. This country will look very different depending on who wins this election...
“…We do not decide our leaders by polls. Right now, there does seem to be a shift in the winds favoring Republicans. But mobilizing voters, making sure your side votes, are the actions that will determine the outcome. And that outcome, no matter what you are reading about or feeling today, has yet to be written.”
WE MUST ALL FIGHT HARDER!!
As Maya Wiley, president and CEO of the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights said recently:
“We are the majority, and together we form a more perfect union.“
We are…and we can!
Annie
annieasksyou... 
You tell it like it is. I’m proud to be a Democrat!!! Please keep up the great work with these posts. If you change even one mind, that’s a blessing.
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Thanks so much, LA. That is a most encouraging response!
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One thing to remember about polling is that its projections depend upon what assumptions the pollster is making about voter turnout. If turnout is substantially different from what the pollster expects, the actual outcome will be correspondingly different from what the polls project. This year, turnout models are especially iffy because of the influence of a new factor (the end of Roe and subsequent wave of abortion bans in red states), for which nobody really knows how much impact it will have. The only hard data point we have is the Kansas referendum, for which polls showed a very close result, whereas the actual result was not close (60% favoring abortion rights), while turnout was very high for an election of that type. Obviously the pollsters misread how the sudden salience of the issue would affect turnout. On the other hand, it was a referendum, and we don’t know whether the abortion issue will drive up turnout for candidate elections in the same way.
Pollsters are also smarting from 2016, where they failed to anticipate how Trump’s unique appeal to citizens of a type who often don’t respond to polls would drive them to vote. They may be over-compensating by over-estimating Republican turnout. Trump is, after all, not on the ballot this year.
So, basically, this year the accuracy of polling is more uncertain than usual. The election could be close or it could be a landslide for either side. We can’t be sure. Democrats must, as you say, fight as hard as possible. It’s always wise to fight as if you were behind.
this year, our personal financial struggles simply have to take a back seat to our democracy’s urgent needs
I don’t think that asking people to de-prioritize their personal financial issues is a winning strategy. Rather, Democrats should tout what they’ve done to help those who needed it, and what they will do if they have secure majorities for the next two years, while also emphasizing the post-covid recovery and growth in jobs. Moreover, point out that the Republicans have no serious proposals for alleviating the current problems such as inflation and the Fed going berserk. Most of their promises center around theatrics and posturing, such as “investigations” of Fauci and Hunter Biden and impeachments of Biden which will go nowhere. None of this even pretends to solve any actual problems. Voters normally reject and punish such antics.
Democrats should also emphasize the threats to Social Security and Medicare. That is a matter of “personal financial struggle” to tens of millions of older voters.
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The largest block of voters, those that can but do not. The true independents that don’t care unless THEY think it is important or directly affects them in a tangible way. The ebb and flow between midterms and presidential turnout. AZ and the reports about lines at the early voting already indicates some type of awakening. The soothing klack klack of the ratchet pulling us up and up… You know from the front car the rails just appear to disappear.
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Arizona is tough. Hope those long lines are to punish the Big Liars. Katie Hobbs’ unwillingness to debate the formidable and despicable Kari Lake has not been helpful.
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Thanks, Infidel. I agree with you on all points. I’ve also made them in various previous posts, but they’re important enough to be stressed repeatedly.
I do think that in addition to citing the many tangible improvements to people’s lives in legislation the Democrats have passed (some of which the Rs claim credit for even though they voted against them), we need to stimulate the thinking that voting is a societal good that helps us all together. The comment you questioned as a strategy was more an expression of hope than anything else.
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With respect to Israel, The Biden Administration quietly achieved an agreement between Israel and Lebanon to establish a maritime boundary. Hopefully, such successes will be noticed.
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Hopefully…Thanks, whungerford. I believe you’re talking about this story? https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/10/17/biden-lebanon-israel-diplomatic-victory/
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According to this report, Biden plans to announce that, if Democrats win large enough majorities, they will pass federal legislation to protect abortion rights. Smart move, if true, since it will re-direct attention back to the Democrats’ strongest issue and give people a concrete policy promise to vote for.
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Agreed, Infidel. It’s a very smart move and he has announced it. Not surprisingly, some media folks are already knocking it as an inevitable failed promise because of projections. Ergo: We Need to Fight Harder!
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Thank you!
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It’s disconcerting that despite the fact that Herschel Walker is an obvious liar and hypocrite, many people want him in office because he’ll undoubtedly vote for anti-choice, anti-women, anti-immigrant, anti-Semitic, and anti-environmental policies. Ditto re Trump, de Santis, and many more. Here’s hoping enough voters turn out to make sure that Warnock prevails over Walker, and that Democrats keep their Congressional majorities. If the opposite happens, we’re headed down a scary sinkhole.
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That’s all true, Gail. And yet in the first day of Georgians’ voting, they came close to meeting the presidential year totals. Thats is like likely good news for the Democrats. I I remain a worrying optimist…
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One thing to note about polls is that as the election gets closer the polls start using “likely” voters instead of “registered” voters.
That means if individuals do not have a history of voting they are not counted in polls. The usual result is that races become much closer. An example I believe in Ohio Maybe could be wrong on state ) using likely voters Vance is even or up 2 points. Using registered voters Ryan is up 6 points. The increased turn out of registered voters in part explains the polling failures of past elections.
Another example was the Kansas abortion referendum. It was the newly registered and activated voters that upset the thuglicans apple cart.
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An excellent point, anynameleft. There have been lots of new registrations among women and young people that may make all polls irrelevant. I recently quoted a Democratic strategist who said there is no way to get accurate polling following the unprecedented (overused word, though useful here) removal of a recognized Constitutional right.
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Oh gosh, Annie. Tender, scary times. Not the time to be complacent, bored, lazy, presumptuous, or even asleep. Work to do, for sure.
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Thanks, Denise. For sure. I think of your saying you button-hole everyone you can as part of what I’m calling “Good Ambassador” efforts. That’s a vital action!
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Scary times for sure! If we fail come January it will have been 90 since the world watched a similar election. It took a couple of years and 60+ human souls to overturn that one.
We need to work as hard and as smart as we can but no matter win/fail come January the fight will recommence.
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It will, indeed, Richard! Thank you!
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